The CME FSPI MLB Club Index Methodology Explained

Every Club Starts Every Season at 7,500

Each of the 30 clubs (teams) has its own index, and all 30 start each season at the same Base Level of 7,500. The number itself carries no meaning beyond providing a common starting line, and from the first game onward points are added to and subtracted from that level as official statistics are recorded. A club above 7,500 has accumulated more positive contributions than negative ones since the season began, while a club below 7,500 has accumulated more negative contributions than positive ones. Because every club starts from the same place, the gap between two index levels on any day is a direct comparison of what the two clubs have done since their first game, and a new franchise entering the league starts at 7,500 on its first day with point accumulation beginning from that level in the ordinary way.

How a Game Becomes Index Points

Every statistic the methodology recognizes carries a fixed multiplier, and when the league records the event the multiplier is applied and the result is added to the club's index level. The complete list is the Points Attribution Table in Appendix A of the methodology guide, which has 72 numbered entries covering 70 constituents and the two Seasonal Adjustment Factor values. The 28 statistical constituents are set out below, with the batting side of the game on the left and the pitching and fielding side on the right.

Two of the batting constituents stack on top of another. A grand slam counts the home run at 6 and the grand slam at 6.5 for a total of 12.5, and a steal of home counts the stolen base at 2.5 and the steal of home at 10 for a total of 12.5. Several constituents have no mirror image on the other side of the table, so a strikeout costs the batting club 1 point while adding 2.5 for the pitching club, a double play costs the batting club 2.5 points only when it is grounded into while every double play the defense turns adds 5, and a stolen base adds 2.5 to the running club with no deduction for the club in the field.

To see how the multipliers combine, suppose a club wins 5 to 2 with nine hits made up of six singles, two doubles, and a home run, draws three walks, strikes out eight times, grounds into one double play, leaves six runners on base, scores its five runs, and steals one base. Its pitchers allow six hits made up of four singles, a double, and a home run, issue two walks, strike out ten, turn one double play, strand seven opposing runners, and allow two runs, and its defense makes one error. The batting side adds 15 for the singles, 7 for the doubles, 6 for the home run, 6 for the walks, 12.5 for the runs, and 2.5 for the stolen base, and subtracts 8 for the strikeouts, 2.5 for the double play, and 15 for the runners left on base, for a net of 23.5. The pitching and fielding side adds 25 for the strikeouts, 5 for the double play, and 17.5 for the stranded runners, and subtracts 10 for the singles, 3.5 for the double, 6 for the home run, 4 for the walks, 5 for the runs, and 2.5 for the error, for a net of 16.5. Before the end of game milestones, the game has added 40 points to the index. If two of the club's batters with three or more plate appearances failed to reach base, the end of game milestone described below subtracts 15, and the game closes at 25 points added.

There Is No Win or Loss Constituent

Nothing in the Points Attribution Table is keyed to the final score. The methodology has no entry for a win, a loss, or an extra inning result, and the closest links to the outcome are the run scored and run allowed constituents at 2.5 points each, together with the game milestones for scoring or allowing one run or none and eight runs or more. Every other event in the game is scored on its own terms, so a club that wins a low scoring game while striking out often, stranding runners, and allowing more hits than it collects can see its index fall on the night, while a club that loses a close game after out-hitting its opponent and dominating the strikeout count can see its index rise. The index records how the club performed across the whole game, and the score enters only through the runs that produced it and the run milestones they trigger.

This is the practical difference between the index and a win or loss record. Two clubs with the same record can sit at very different index levels, and the gap between them shows which one has built the stronger statistical record under the methodology over the season to date.

Game Milestones

Beyond the statistical constituents, the methodology recognizes 25 game milestones. Threshold milestones are applied once, at the moment the threshold is crossed, and the remaining milestones are checked when the league marks the game official.

Applied at occurrence

Applied at the end of the game

A player is treated as reaching base only by a hit, a base on balls including an intentional walk, or a hit by pitch, so a player who reaches on an error, a fielder's choice, or catcher's interference and never otherwise gets on counts toward the milestone. Because that milestone is counted once for each such player, a lineup in which five batters with three or more plate appearances go without reaching base subtracts 37.5 points. A perfect game overrides the no hitter on both sides of the table, so the club that throws one receives 500 points in total, and the club held without a baserunner loses 500 in total.

Monthly and Season Milestones

At the end of each calendar month of the regular season, the club with the most hits in the month adds 125 points, as do the club with the most runs scored, the club with the most stolen bases, and the club whose pitchers recorded the most strikeouts, while the club whose batters struck out the most, the club with the most players failing to reach base in a game over the month, the club that allowed the most hits, and the club that allowed the most runs each subtract 125. Monthly milestones are awarded only when at least 200 regular season games have been completed league wide in that calendar month, which is why a partial opening month with fewer than 200 games produces no award.

At the end of the regular season, the same eight categories are awarded across the full season at 250 points each. Standings play no part in either set of milestones, and there is no award for finishing first or last. Monthly and season milestones are determined from regular season games only, including extra innings and excluding the postseason, and when clubs tie for a milestone every tied club receives the full amount. Monthly milestones are applied at 7:00 AM Central Time on the Calculation Day following the last game scheduled in the month, and for the month in which the regular season concludes they are applied on the Calculation Day following the conclusion of the regular season, together with the season milestones at 8:00 AM Central Time, so that all of them are included in that morning's official Index Close.

Postseason Games Carry One and a Half Times the Weight

The methodology applies a Seasonal Adjustment Factor to every statistical constituent and every game milestone, set at 1.0 for regular season games and 1.5 for postseason games. A home run that adds 6 points in the regular season adds 9 in the postseason, a pitching strikeout that adds 2.5 adds 3.75, and a club no hitter that adds 250 adds 375, and negative events scale the same way so that a postseason run allowed subtracts 3.75 and a postseason no hitter against the club subtracts 375. Monthly and season milestones are determined from regular season games and are always applied at a factor of 1.0.

The World Series Winner milestone carries 750 points and is applied with the postseason factor for a total of 1,125 points. It is applied at 8:00 AM Central Time on the Calculation Day following the last game of the World Series and is included in that morning's official Index Close.

The Official Close

Every calendar day of the year is a Calculation Day, including weekends and holidays, and the calendar does not depend on any exchange's trading schedule. During a game the index updates as plays are recorded, and that live number is an indicative value published on a best efforts basis, which is not an official value and is not restated. The official Index Close for a Calculation Day is published at 9:00 AM Central Time on the following Calculation Day, based on final league data marked official before that time, so a night game on the West Coast that finishes and is marked official before 9:00 AM Central is included in that morning's close, while a game that has not been marked official by 9:00 AM Central waits for the next official close. Games played in international time zones, such as a series opening the season in Asia, are handled the same way and are included in the official Index Close published at 9:00 AM Central on the first morning by which they have been marked official.

Internal calculations run at eight decimal places with no intermediate rounding, and published values are rounded to two decimal places at the point of publication with half values rounded away from zero. The official Index Close is the official value of the index for that day, and it is the value that any futures contract referencing the index settles to at expiration on the date set out in the CME Group contract specifications, while the daily settlement prices of the futures themselves are determined by CME Group under its own procedures. If an operational disruption delays publication of the official Index Close by more than one hour, FutureSports issues a public announcement and announces the revised publication once it is available.

Which Day a Game Counts On

If a game starts on one calendar day and ends on the next, every statistic from that game is attributed to the date the game began in the local time zone of play. A game that is postponed before play begins and played later has all of its statistics attributed to the new game date and nothing attributed to the original date, and a game that is cancelled and never played contributes nothing at all.

If a game begins and is then suspended before the league marks it official, as happens when rain stops play after the first pitch, its statistics are attributed to the date the game is resumed or replayed. When play resumes from the point of suspension, the statistics accrued before the stoppage carry over to the resumption date, and when a game is replayed from the beginning, the league alone decides whether statistics from the stopped game are carried into or excluded from the official record. In every case the index uses only the official statistics the league reports for the game as finally scored, counts each statistic once, and includes the result in the first official Index Close published after the league marks the game official.

Corrections to Official Statistics

The league sometimes amends a statistic after a game has ended, for example when an official scorer changes a hit to an error or an error to a hit, and the methodology treats each amendment as a discrete statistical event. The difference is run through the Points Attribution Table and included in the next official Index Close, with the amended statistics and their index impact disclosed in the end of day files. Previously published official closes are not restated for league amendments, milestone determinations already made are not revisited, and the amendment affects index values only from that point forward.

Restatements of published values are reserved for errors made by FutureSports in calculating or applying the methodology, and they are governed by the FSPI Index Maintenance, Error Management, and Methodology Changes document, which applies a materiality test, treats de minimis errors as not requiring adjustment, and operates under a single season correction window. Intraday values are not recalculated after the fact in either case.

No Floor

An index level can fall below zero within a season if a club's cumulative negative contributions exceed its cumulative positive contributions and the prevailing level, and nothing in the methodology stops that from happening. Negative values receive no floor, no interim adjustment, and no special treatment, and the index continues to be calculated and published in the ordinary way. Over a 162 game season the distance a club can travel from 7,500 is large, and the annual reset described in the next section returns every club to 7,500 at the start of the following season without preventing negative values from occurring within a season.

The Season Reset

Every index is reset to the Base Level of 7,500 on the Calculation Day falling 32 calendar days after the last game of the World Series, and the reset level is first published on that day. Between the end of the World Series and the reset, each index ordinarily stands at its season end level, which already includes the World Series Winner milestone applied the day after the last game. The reset gives every club the same starting point for the new season, keeps comparisons across clubs and seasons clean, and prevents the unbounded drift that would build up if levels carried across seasons.

The reset is an event in the index calendar, and any futures contract that references an index has its own listing, expiration, and settlement dates set by CME Group in the contract specifications. If a club relocates or changes its name, its index ticker may change, and the index follows the normal annual reset.

How Multipliers Can Change

Multiplier values were established from historical league data, with the analysis for statistical constituents covering scarcity, historical event frequency and impact, and correlation with club success, and with milestone values set from statistical analysis of their measurable impact on game and season outcomes. The values remain fixed between scheduled reviews, are not adjusted during a season or on a discretionary basis, and are not tuned to influence short term index behavior.

FutureSports reviews constituent definitions and multiplier values as part of the Comprehensive Index Review at the conclusion of each league season. Any change that is reasonably expected to affect index behavior, volatility, or historical continuity is a material methodology change, which requires review and approval by the Product Governance Committee and is publicly announced before it takes effect, while non-material changes such as typographical corrections or clarifications of descriptive language are documented and disclosed as appropriate. Changes to league rules or to the league's own statistical definitions are evaluated under the same document.

An Index Is Not a Prediction Market Contract

A prediction market contract asks a yes or no question and resolves when the answer is known, whereas the index never resolves at all. Every game adds points or subtracts them, the level carries forward to the next game and the next month until the season reset, and no single game, statistic, threshold, or milestone causes an index to settle, terminate, or become finally determined. The index measures how well a club has played across the season to date, it is designed to be independent of any binary outcome, and it keeps being calculated on the days a club does not play, so the level on any given morning is the official record of cumulative performance published under a documented governance framework.

Futures contracts that reference an index are a separate matter, listed by CME Group and settling at expiration to the official Index Close on the date set out in the CME Group contract specifications. FutureSports administers the index, and nothing in the methodology or in the publication of an index constitutes the listing, clearing, offering, or solicitation of any contract.

Published Documents

The governing texts are the FSPI MLB Team Index Methodology Guide, the FSPI Index Calculation and Publication Schedule, the FSPI Index Maintenance, Error Management, and Methodology Changes document, the FSPI Index Governance Committee Composition and Operating Procedures, and the FSPI Index Complaint Handling and Resolution Policy, all of which are published on the FutureSports website together with the IOSCO Statement of Compliance that FutureSports publishes at least annually. Every statement in this guide is drawn from those documents, and where the two differ, the published methodology controls. Questions about contract specifications, expiration dates, margin, or settlement mechanics belong with CME Group and your broker.

Important Information

This guide is provided for information only and is not an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract or other financial instrument, nor is it investment advice. The CME FSPI MLB Club Indexes are administered and calculated by FutureSports as Index Administrator under a methodology designed to align with the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks. Major League Baseball serves only as the official source of underlying performance data, does not participate in index determination, calculation, or methodology governance, and does not sponsor, endorse, or administer the indexes. Any futures contract referencing an index is listed by CME Group under CME Group's own contract specifications and is separate from the index itself. FutureSports does not distribute futures products, is not a broker, futures commission merchant, or exchange, and does not provide investment advice.