The FSPI NHL Team Index Methodology Explained

Every Team Starts Every Season at 7,500

Each of the 32 NHL teams has its own index, and all 32 start each season at the same Base Level of 7,500. The number itself carries no meaning beyond providing a common starting line, and from the first game onward points are added to and subtracted from that level as official statistics are recorded. A team above 7,500 has accumulated more positive contributions than negative ones since the season began, while a team below 7,500 has accumulated more negative contributions than positive ones. Because every team starts from the same place, the gap between two index levels on any day is a direct comparison of what the two teams have done since opening night, and a new franchise entering the league starts at 7,500 on its first day with point accumulation beginning from that level in the ordinary way.

How a Game Becomes Index Points

Every statistic used by the index methodology carries a fixed multiplier. When the league records an event during a game, the multiplier is applied and the team's indicative index level moves, and the event counts toward the official Index Close once the league marks the game official (see The Official Close section below).The complete list is the Points Attribution Table in Appendix A of the methodology guide, and the entries that account for most of the movement are set out in the table below.

Empty net goals work as an adjustment applied alongside the goal type, so an even strength goal into an empty net counts +12 and -2 for a net +10, and an even strength goal allowed into an empty net counts -12 and +7.5 for a net -4.5.

To see how the multipliers combine, suppose a team wins 3 to 2 in regulation with two even strength goals and one power play goal, allows two even strength goals, outshoots its opponent 32 to 28, and gets 26 saves from its own goaltender while the opposing goaltender makes 29. The three goals add 34 points and the two goals allowed subtract 24, the 32 shots add 48 while the 28 shots against subtract 42, the 26 saves add 19.5 while the 29 opposing saves subtract 21.75, and the win itself adds 10. Before faceoffs, hits, blocks, takeaways, giveaways, and penalties, each of which adds or subtracts further points, the game has added 23.75 points to the index. The companion piece How the Index Works walks through an actual game in full.

Wins and Losses Are One Line Among Many

A win adds 10 points, a regulation loss subtracts 10, and an overtime or shootout loss subtracts 5. Each team receives exactly one of these three entries per game, and they are the only index methodology constituents keyed directly to the win/loss result. Everything else in the game is scored on its own terms, so a team that wins while being outshot and giving the puck away can see its index fall on the night, and a team that loses a close game while dominating play can see its index rise. The index records how the team performed across the whole game, with the final score as one input among many.

This is the practical difference between the index and a win or loss record. Two teams with the same record can sit at very different index levels, and the gap between them shows which one has built the stronger statistical record under the methodology over the season to date.

End of Game Milestones

When the league marks a game official, the methodology checks a short list of end of game milestones and applies each one that has been met a single time, using the values in the table below.

Goal milestones count goals in regulation and overtime and exclude shootout goals, and if a game is still 0 to 0 after overtime and goes to a shootout, both teams are credited with a shutout regardless of who wins the shootout. The game clinching goal is a FutureSports definition derived from official data, covering the goal that puts the winning team ahead by the final one goal margin inside the last two minutes of regulation or the goal that ends the game in overtime, with shootout goals excluded.

Monthly and Season Milestones

At the end of each calendar month of the regular season, the team with the most goals in the month adds 125 points, as do the team with the most blocked shots and the team with the most takeaways, while the team with the fewest goals, the team with the fewest blocked shots, and the team with the most giveaways each subtract 125. Monthly milestones are awarded only when at least 100 regular season games have been completed league wide in that month.

At the end of the regular season, the same six categories are awarded across the full season at 250 points each, and the team that finishes first in its conference adds 250 while the team that finishes last in its conference subtracts 250. Monthly and season milestones are determined from regular season games only, including overtime and excluding the playoffs, and when teams tie for a milestone every tied team receives the full amount. Monthly milestones are applied at 7:00 AM Central Time on the Calculation Day after the last game scheduled in the month, and season milestones at 8:00 AM Central Time on the Calculation Day after the last regular season game, so that both are included in that morning's official Index Close.

Playoff Games Carry One and a Half Times the Weight

The methodology applies a Seasonal Adjustment Factor to every in-game statistic and every end of game milestone, set at 1.0 for regular season games and 1.5 for postseason games. An even strength goal that adds 12 points in the regular season adds 18 in the playoffs, a win that adds 10 in the regular season adds 15 in the playoffs, and a shutout that adds 50 in the regular season adds 75 in the playoffs, and negative events scale the same way so that a playoff loss subtracts 15 and a playoff goal allowed subtracts 18. Monthly and season milestones are determined from regular season games and are always applied at a factor of 1.0.

The Stanley Cup Winner milestone carries 750 points and is applied with the postseason factor for a total of 1,125 points. It is applied at 8:00 AM Central Time on the Calculation Day following the last game of the Stanley Cup Final and is included in that morning's official Index Close.

The Official Close

Every calendar day of the year is a Calculation Day, including weekends and holidays, and the calendar does not depend on any exchange's trading schedule. During a game the index updates as plays are recorded, and that live number is an indicative value published on a best-efforts basis, which is not an official value and is not restated. The official Index Close for a Calculation Day is published at 9:00 AM Central Time on the following Calculation Day, based on final league data marked official before that time, so a game that finishes and is marked official before 9:00 AM Central is included in that morning's close even if it started the previous evening, while a game that has not been marked official by 9:00 AM Central waits for the next official close.

Internal calculations run at eight decimal places with no intermediate rounding, and published values are rounded to two decimal places at the point of publication with half values rounded away from zero. The official Index Close is the official value of the index for that day, and it is the value that any futures contract referencing the index settles to at expiration on the date set out in the CME Group contract specifications, while the daily settlement prices of the futures themselves are determined by CME Group under its own procedures. If an operational disruption delays publication of the official Index Close by more than one hour, FutureSports issues a public announcement and announces the revised publication once it is available.

Which Day a Game Counts On

If a game starts on one calendar day and ends on the next, every statistic from that game is attributed to the date the game began in the local time zone of play. A game that is postponed before play begins and played later has all of its statistics attributed to the new game date and nothing attributed to the original date, and a game that is cancelled and never played contributes nothing at all.

If a game begins and is then suspended before the league marks it official, its statistics are attributed to the date the game is resumed or replayed. When play resumes from the point of suspension, the statistics accrued before the stoppage carry over to the resumption date, and when a game is replayed from the beginning, the league alone decides whether statistics from the stopped game are carried into or excluded from the official record. In every case the index uses only the official statistics the league reports for the game as finally scored, counts each statistic once, and includes the result in the first official Index Close published after the league marks the game official.

Corrections to Official Statistics

The league sometimes amends a statistic after a game has ended, for example by reassigning a goal or re-crediting a shot, and the methodology treats each amendment as a discrete statistical event. The difference is run through the Points Attribution Table and included in the next official Index Close, with the amended statistics and their index impact disclosed in the end of day files. Previously published official closes are not restated for league amendments, milestone determinations already made are not revisited, and the amendment affects index values only from that point forward.

Restatements of published values are reserved for errors made by FutureSports in calculating or applying the methodology, and they are governed by the FSPI Index Maintenance, Error Management, and Methodology Changes document, which applies a materiality test, treats de minimis errors as not requiring adjustment, and operates under a single season correction window. Intraday values are not recalculated after the fact in either case.

No Floor

An index level can fall below zero within a season if a team's cumulative negative contributions exceed its cumulative positive contributions and the prevailing level, and nothing in the methodology stops that from happening. Negative values receive no floor, no interim adjustment, and no special treatment, and the index continues to be calculated and published in the ordinary way. The annual reset described in the next section returns every team to 7,500 at the start of the following season, and it does not prevent negative values from occurring within a season.

The Season Reset

Every index is reset to the Base Level of 7,500 on the Calculation Day falling 32 calendar days after the last game of the Stanley Cup Final, and the reset level is first published on that day. Between the end of the Final and the reset, each index ordinarily stands at its season end level, which already includes the Stanley Cup Winner milestone applied the day after the last game. The reset gives every team the same starting point for the new season, keeps comparisons across teams and seasons clean, and prevents the unbounded drift that would build up if levels carried across seasons.

The reset is an event in the index calendar, and any futures contract that references an index has its own listing, expiration, and settlement dates set by CME Group in the contract specifications. If a team relocates or changes its name, its index ticker may change, and the index follows the normal annual reset.

How Multipliers Can Change

Multiplier values were established from historical league data, with the analysis for in-game statistics covering scarcity, historical event frequency and impact, and correlation with team success, and with milestone values set from statistical analysis of their measurable impact on game and season outcomes. The values remain fixed between scheduled reviews, are not adjusted during a season or on a discretionary basis, and are not tuned to influence short term index behavior.

FutureSports reviews constituent definitions and multiplier values as part of the Comprehensive Index Review at the conclusion of each league season. Any change that is reasonably expected to affect index behavior, volatility, or historical continuity is a material methodology change, which requires review and approval by the Product Governance Committee and is publicly announced before it takes effect, while non-material changes such as typographical corrections or clarifications of descriptive language are documented and disclosed as appropriate.

An Index Is Not a Prediction Market Contract

A prediction market contract asks a yes or no question and resolves when the answer is known, whereas the index never resolves at all. Every game adds points or subtracts them, the level carries forward to the next game and the next month until the season reset, and no single game, statistic, threshold, or milestone causes an index to settle, terminate, or become finally determined. The index measures how well a team has played across the season to date, it is designed to be independent of any binary outcome, and it keeps being calculated on the days a team does not play, so the level on any given morning is the official record of cumulative performance published under a documented governance framework.

Futures contracts that reference an index are a separate matter, listed by CME Group and settling at expiration to the official Index Close on the date set out in the CME Group contract specifications. FutureSports administers the index, and nothing in the methodology or in the publication of an index constitutes the listing, clearing, offering, or solicitation of any contract.

Published Documents

The governing texts are the FSPI NHL Team Index Methodology Guide, the FSPI Index Calculation and Publication Schedule, the FSPI Index Maintenance, Error Management, and Methodology Changes document, the FSPI Index Governance Committee Composition and Operating Procedures, and the FSPI Index Complaint Handling and Resolution Policy, all of which are published on the FutureSports website together with the IOSCO Statement of Compliance that FutureSports publishes at least annually. Every statement in this guide is drawn from those documents, and where the two differ, the published methodology controls. Questions about contract specifications, expiration dates, margin, or settlement mechanics belong with CME Group and your broker.

Important Information

This guide is provided for information only and is not an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract or other financial instrument, nor is it investment advice. The CME FSPI NHL Team Indexes are administered and calculated by FutureSports as Index Administrator under a methodology designed to align with the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks. The NHL serves only as the official source of underlying performance data, does not participate in index determination, calculation, or methodology governance, and does not sponsor, endorse, or administer the indexes. Any futures contract referencing an index is listed by CME Group under CME Group's own contract specifications and is separate from the index itself. FutureSports does not distribute futures products, is not a broker, futures commission merchant, or exchange, and does not provide investment advice.